The US dollar fell below the 97 integer mark, with metals generally declining. LME copper and LME nickel fell by over 1%, while New York gold futures rose by over 1% on a weekly basis [overnight market moves]

SMM News on July 5:

Metal Market:

Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally declined. LME copper and LME nickel both fell by over 1%, with LME copper down 1.03% and LME nickel down 1.24%. The declines of other metals were all within 1%. The main alumina futures contract fell by 0.79%, and the main casting aluminum futures contract fell by 0.55%.

Overnight, the ferrous metals series generally declined. Stainless steel fell by 0.47%, iron ore closed flat at 736 yuan/mt, and the declines of rebar and HRC were both within 0.1%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.53%, and coke fell by 0.42%.

Overnight, in the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose by 0.11%, but its weekly line rebounded by 1.79% after two consecutive weeks of decline. COMEX silver rose by 0.14%, with a weekly increase of 2.1%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.19%, with a weekly increase of 0.6%, SHFE silver rose by 0.16%, with a weekly increase of 1.24%, and SHFE silver recorded two consecutive weeks of gains.

Overnight closing market quotes as of 8:54 a.m. on July 5

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Macro Front:

Domestically:

The People's Bank of China issued a notice seeking public comments on the "Business Rules for the Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) (Draft for Comment)". The "Business Rules" clarify detailed procedures for CIPS participants' account management, capital injection, and fund settlement. As CIPS functions and services continue to be optimized, it is necessary to adjust the relevant content of the "Business Rules", only proposing principle requirements for participants' business behaviors to ensure the forward-looking and scientific nature of regulatory documents and effectively adapt to the needs of CIPS business development and functional upgrades.

Zhang Yuzhuo, Director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC), conducted a survey at China Nonferrous Metal Mining (Group) Co., Ltd. on July 3. Zhang Yuzhuo emphasized the need to vigorously implement a new round of strategic actions for breakthroughs in mineral exploration and continuously promote the increase in reserves and production of important metal minerals; to accelerate the development of new quality productive forces and promote the high-quality development of the new materials industry represented by superconducting materials.

Du Chaoxin, head of the Free Trade Zone and Special Economic Zone Development Department of the General Administration of Customs, stated at a regular policy briefing of the State Council on July 4 that in the next step, the customs will continue to vigorously support free trade pilot zones in conducting more explorations in aligning with international high-standard economic and trade rules and advancing high-level institutional opening-up, further intensify institutional innovation efforts, strive to form more leading and breakthrough institutional innovation achievements, and contribute customs strength to China's higher-level opening-up to the outside world.

US Dollar:

The US dollar index fell by 0.14% overnight to close at 96.98, breaking below the 97 integer mark, with a weekly decline of 0.29%, recording two consecutive weeks of decline. According to China News Service, US President Trump stated on the 3rd that he plans to send letters to trading partners as early as Friday (the 4th), informing them of the tariff rates they will face. On April 2nd, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, but later reduced most of the tariffs to 10% until July 9th to facilitate negotiations. US President Trump's tax cut bill cleared the final hurdle in Congress on Thursday, making his 2017 tax cut policy permanent, funding his plan to crack down on immigration, and fulfilling his promise of new tax cuts during his 2024 campaign.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, higher than the estimated 110,000. The increase in May was revised up to 144,000, from a previous value of 139,000. Despite the unexpectedly strong job growth in June, nearly half of the non-farm payroll growth came from the government sector, with the smallest increase in private sector jobs in eight months as businesses grapple with intensifying economic headwinds. US non-farm payrolls in June exceeded expectations, with an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate, indicating that the labour market remains resilient. After the non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, the current market expectation for unchanged interest rates in July stands at 93%, with a continued expectation for an interest rate cut in September and two cuts within the year.

Macro Aspects:

Next week, China will release data including China's June foreign exchange reserves, China's June PPI year-on-year rate, China's June CPI year-on-year rate, China's June M2 money supply year-on-year rate, China's year-to-date social financing scale as of June, and China's year-to-date new RMB loans as of June. The US will release data such as the 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations from the New York Fed for June, the final value of the US May wholesale inventory month-on-month rate, the US July IPSOS Main Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), the total amount of the 10-year Treasury bond auction on July 9th, the bid-winning rate of the 10-year Treasury bond auction on July 9th, the high yield of the 10-year Treasury bond auction on July 9th, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5th. Germany will release data including the month-on-month rate of seasonally adjusted industrial output for May, the year-on-year rate of working-day adjusted industrial output for May, the month-on-month rate of seasonally adjusted exports for May, and the final value of the June CPI year-on-year rate. The UK will release data such as the month-on-month rate of GDP for May, the year-on-year rate of industrial output for May, the seasonally adjusted goods trade balance for May, and the seasonally adjusted trade balance for May. The Eurozone will release data such as the Sentix investor confidence index for July and the year-on-year rate of retail sales for May. Australia will release data including the ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending July 6th and the cash rate for July 8th. Canada will release data such as the seasonally adjusted IVEY PMI for June, the change in employment for June, and the unemployment rate for June. Additionally, data such as Japan's May trade balance (seasonally adjusted by the central bank based on customs data), New Zealand's official cash rate decision for July 9th, Switzerland's June seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index, and the global supply chain pressure index for June will also be released.

It is also worth noting that the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. Musallem, the 2025 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, will deliver a speech on the US economy and monetary policy. Daly, the 2027 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, will deliver a speech on the US economic outlook. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy assessment report, and RBNZ Governor Orr will hold a monetary policy press conference.

On July 8, the suspension period for US reciprocal tariffs expired. On April 2, Trump announced the imposition of so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on products imported from dozens of countries worldwide, but later postponed their implementation for 90 days under pressure.

Crude Oil:

As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell together, with US oil down 0.75% and Brent oil down 0.42%. However, both recorded weekly gains, with US oil up 1.5% and Brent oil up 2.5%. On July 4, due to the US Independence Day holiday, trading was quiet in the US market. Attention is now focused on the OPEC+ meeting this weekend and the possibility of member countries deciding to increase production.

Eight OPEC+ member countries may decide to increase oil production again in August at Saturday's meeting to seize market share. The meeting will be held one day earlier, on Saturday. Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said, "There seems to be some profit-taking due to concerns that OPEC will increase production more than expected."

Meanwhile, as the 90-day tariff suspension period approaches its end, uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies has once again become a focal point. Washington will begin sending letters to countries on Friday, specifying the tariff rates that will be imposed on their exports to the US.

Barclays said on Thursday that due to an improved demand outlook, it has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 by $6 to $72 per barrel and its forecast for 2026 by $10 to $70 per barrel. (Wenhua Comprehensive)